Of the 11 teams with the best cover percentage in 2023, 10 made the playoffs. The outlier is the Raiders, who went 10-6-1 against the spread and 8-9 straight-up. The Raiders outperformed expectations under interim coach Antonio Pierce, but what does this all mean for your Week 1 NFL picks? Vegas will face the Chargers as part of the Week 1 NFL schedule, and L.A. went 5-12 outright and 6-11 against the spread last year. Historically, spread success has little carryover from year-to-year, as the Chargers were 11-6-1 ATS in 2022. The Chargers are 3.5-point favorites against the Raiders in the Week 1 NFL odds.
If previous year cover success only means so much, which other factors should influence your Week 1 NFL predictions, both straight-up and with NFL spread picks? All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL oddsandNFL bettinglines on thespread,money line, andover-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.
Top Week 1 NFL predictions
We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3.5) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders. Los Angeles has a tendency to struggle as a season goes on, but it usually starts off strongly as it is 4-1 over its last five Week 1 games. Justin Herbert has also historically used Raiders games as an opportunity to pad his stats as he has 18 total touchdowns versus just two turnovers in his seven-game career against Las Vegas.
Meanwhile, Gardner Minshew is 0-2 in his career against the Chargers and should be under attack all game. Just six teams had more sacks than Los Angeles last year (48), and that was with Joey Bosa missing half the year. He's back healthy to pair with Khalil Mack, who terrorized his former team with a six-sack game against the Raiders last season. Add in that the Chargers are going for their fourth straight home win over the Raiders, and the model has L.A. (-3.5) covering well over 60% of the time.See which other teams to pick here.
Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-6) cover at home versus the Cardinals. If anything, the Cardinals are consistent as they allowed the second-most points in the NFL in both the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Last year, the team had weak points in all regards as Arizona allowed the most rushing yards while giving up the third-most passing touchdowns. Thus, the last thing the defense wants to see is a two-way threat like Josh Allen.
The two-time Pro Bowler is coming off a year in which he ranked fourth in passing yards, fifth in passing touchdowns and second in rushing TDs. He accounted for multiple touchdowns in 18 of his 19 games, and his running ability poses a huge threat to Arizona. The Cards allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to opposing QBs last year while giving up the sixth-most rushing TDs to quarterbacks. Allen is projected to have 20 more rushing yards and nearly 70 more passing yards than Kyler Murray, and that edge has Buffalo covering in almost 70% of simulations.See which other teams to pick here.
How to make Week 1 NFL picks
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule and just revealed four teams that win outright over 70% of the time.You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.
Week 1 NFL betting odds, lines, spreads
Get Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine
Thursday, Sept. 5
Ravens at Chiefs (-3, 46.5)
Friday, Sept. 6
Packers vs. Eagles (-2.5, 48.5) -- in Brazil
Sunday, Sept. 8
Steelers at Falcons (-3, 42.5)
Cardinals at Bills (-6, 48)
Titans at Bears (-4.5, 45.5)
Patriots at Bengals (-8.5, 40.5)
Texans at Colts (+2.5, 48.5)
Jaguars at Dolphins (-3, 49.5)
Panthers at Saints (-4, 41.5)
Vikings at Giants (+1, 41.5)
Raiders at Chargers (-3.5, 40.5)
Broncos at Seahawks (-5.5, 42)
Cowboys at Browns (-2.5, 42)
Commanders at Buccaneers (-3.5, 43.5)
Rams at Lions (-3.5, 51)
Monday, Sept. 9
Jets at 49ers (-3.5, 43.5)
